Malaysia foreign reserved drop...

我国的外汇储备金增加与减少由很多因素决定，例如出口所得，FDI(正正经经进入我国要开厂投资的外资)，兑换率。除了这些因素，还有一个重要因素就是热钱了。热钱进来我国，大部分是进入政府债券，但也有些钱进入股市和房地产，大抄股票和房地产。因此，通过观察我国的外汇储备将大约知道热钱的动向。

热钱通常只有在有赚钱的可能性高时才会进入个别国家，例如有投资主题 (BRIC，MENA)，或是有currency gain的可能性。例如我国在2005年宣布不再peg美元(之前是1美元兑换3.8马币)，每个人都知道当时马币是undervalued了，将来的方向一定是升值，所以热钱就进来了。

我国的外汇储备金于31/12/2005时是USD70.5 billion；
31/12/2006时是USD82.5 billion；
31/12/2007时是USD101.3 billion；
31/03/2008时是USD120.3 billion （急促增加）。

在31/12/2005到31/03/2008这段期间大家可以看到我国股市非常的牛，热钱/外资大抄股票。

可惜好景不长，我国的外汇储备金从最顶峰的USD125.8 billion (30/06/2008)逐渐下跌到15/10/2008的USD107.6 billion，而且还没有停止下跌的感觉。外资离开我国，所以我国股市也进入熊市。

讲了这么多，结论呢？
我的结论是通过观察我国的外汇储备金增加或减少的趋势，我们可以大约预知下场牛市的到来，并提早做好准备！


History:
我国的外汇储备金记录 (国家银行的资料)：

USD70.5 billion as at 31 December 2005
USD70.8 billion as at 13 January 2006
USD71.3 billion as at 27 January 2006
USD71.6 billion as at 15 February 2006
USD72.2 billion as at 28 February 2006
USD72.9 billion as at 15 March 2006
USD73.7 billion as at 31 March 2006
USD74.9 billion as at 14 April 2006
USD75.7 billion as at 28 April 2006
USD78.6 billion as at 15 May 2006
USD78.6 billion as at 15 May 2006
USD78.4 billion as at 15 June 2006
USD78.8 billion as at 30 June 2006

USD78.9 billion as at 14 July 2006
USD79.1 billion as at 31 July 2006
USD79.2 billion as at 15 August 2006
USD79.3 billion as at 30 August 2006
USD79.3 billion as at 15 September 2006
USD79.5 billion as at 29 September 2006
USD79.6 billion as at 13 October 2006
USD79.6 billion as at 31 October 2006
USD79.8 billion as at 15 November 2006
USD80 billion as at 30 November 2006
USD80.3 billion as at 15 December 2006
USD82.5 billion as at 31 December 2006

USD82.7 billion as at 15 January 2007
USD83.5 billion as at 31 January 2007
USD85.1 billion as at 15 February 2007
USD86.9 billion as at 28 February 2007
USD87.3 billion as at 15 March 2007
USD88.6 billion as at 30 March 2007
USD89.5 billion as at 13 April 2007
USD91.6 billion as at 30 April 2007
USD94.5 billion as at 15 May 2007
USD98.4 billion as at 31 May 2007
USD98.4 billion as at 15 June 2007
USD98.4 billion as at 29 June 2007

USD98.4 billion as at 13 July 2007
USD98.5 billion as at 31 July 2007
USD98.4 billion as at 15 August 2007
USD96.8 billion as at 30 August 2007
USD97 billion as at 14 September 2007
USD98.2 billion as at 28 September 2007
USD98.5 billion as at 12 October 2007
USD99.6 billion as at 31 October 2007
USD101.2 billion as at 15 November 2007
USD101.1 billion as at 30 November 2007
USD101.1 billion as at 14 December 2007
USD101.3 billion as at 31 December 2007

USD104.3 billion as at 15 January 2008
USD109.3 billion as at 31 January 2008
USD110.9 billion as at 15 February 2008
USD116.3 billion as at 29 February 2008
USD119.1 billion as at 14 March 2008
USD120.3 billion as at 31 March 2008
USD122 billion as at 15 April 2008
USD124.1 billion as at 30 April 2008
USD125.1 billion as at 15 May 2008
USD125.2 billion as at 30 May 2008
USD124.6 billion as at 13 June 2008
USD125.8 billion as at 30 June 2008

USD125.1 billion as at 15 July 2008
USD125.1 billion as at 31 July 2008.
USD123.7 billion as at 15 August 2008
USD122.6 billion as at 29 August 2008
USD119.1 billion as at 15 September 2008
USD109.7 billion as at 30 September 2008
USD107.6 billion as at 15 October 2008